Connecticut will continue to see mild job losses in coming years, but will avoid a recession. Thatâ€™s the latest forecast from economists at UConn.
The outlook from UConnâ€™s Center for Economic Analysis reflects a big turnaround on their gloomy forecast issued in the spring. This reports says the state will continue to lose jobs, to the tune of almost ten thousand posts over the next 30 months. But the report authors also believe the stateâ€™s economy will continue to grow, and by 2010 will be ready to accelerate.
Job losses will be intensified by the continuing housing slump and consequent weakness in construction trades, but Connecticutâ€™s manufacturing sector could be a bright spot, unless a strengthening dollar disrupts recent gains in export income. If the forecast is borne out, economists say Connecticutâ€™s economic adjustment will be the mildest in more than two generations.
But they warn that the stateâ€™s long term competitiveness is still of major concern. While job totals in 2010 are expected to be well above those of three years ago, they will be level with the stateâ€™s employment totals of 20 years ago. And say the authors, in the intervening decades, Connecticut has moved to a lower wage economy, with a poorer quality workforce and a disturbing trend of young people leaving the state.