20:36 minutes (9.89 MB)
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Political futures trading is considered illegal in the US. It's sort of lumped with online gambling. But, in many ways, it's more similar to a long-established and accepted form of trading, the commodity exchange--where traders bet on the future prices of commodities like corn and wheat and oil. When farmers sell their crops based on a futures contract before they even put plants in the ground, they are betting on an unknown--the future price of their crops. We've heard about this sort of thing a lot this year, like when we talk about the price of crude oil and speculators. Similarly, political futures markets would allow the trade of contracts (bets) tied to election outcomes. Today we'll talk to Business and Public Policy Professor Justin Wolfers about trading political predictions and tomorrow's elections.